First off, thank you both for this friendly debate. It's both excellent and vital.
My initial thoughts are that I side with you Dr Sheftall and your argument. It seems more probable to me that the insert was placed there artificially than for natural mutations and evolution to just occur this way.
The difficulty of testing this new designer pathogen (assuming it was made in a lab) certainly makes sense as a counter argument. But surely with technology now, mathematical modelling and with chaos theory imbedded into the software, they could calculate the probabilites of a new designer pathogen to replicate and reproduce in hosts, without risky live testing taking place. Maybe not perfectly but within a reasonable certainty.
However it is difficult to say with absolute certainty because miracles happen all the time. Especially when dealing with millions and billions of events and small changes any hour of any day, every week, every year. There is still a chance or probability the mutation that occured not only allowed animal to human transmission, but to be a complete change allowing immediate human to human spread also. How could someone calculate that probability in that? It is well above my mathematic capabilities. But however small the chance does exist.
So here I am at an impass. If it waddles like a duck and quacks it's probably a duck. So I still lean towards the lab leak theory as most probable. Damn them and plausible deniability!
Thank you Conway. It was a good debate, wasn't it? I want to answer one of your questions- the one about the chance of the virus mutating to such an extent that it had changed the spike protein enough to dock with human ACXE-2 AND in such a waay that the viral load was enough to make it transmissible from human to human. It's so rare that it has never happened once in the history of man and there are 10 ecp 31 viruses out there trying to do it every day.
I enjoyed it. It relatively quickly solidified my understanding of the issue, from two differing perspectives. I still see your argument as the more likely of the two theories.
I reckon you should try and get an interview with Dr Mike Yeadon at some stage. If you have an hour free watch this.
Reckon he is going crazy? Or is he just overwhelmed by everything going on?
I know Mike. I joked with him that If I didn't know I was me and he him, I woulf have thought I was watching myself talk as we have very similar takes on the covid mismanagement and we look alike somewhat. I offered for he and his wife to stay in my beach house as they were transitioning to become US citizens. He kind of disappeared on me and then months later, wrote a very nice thing about me in someone else's substack. I wrote him and asked for an interview but he didn't answer. The ones with Jay might be better as Jay and I disagree on so many things.Mike would be good though. He might not have gotten my message but we exchanged 10 or 15 before.
Thank you for a great discussion, but I'm still with you Dr. Sheftall. One more thing to consider on top of that very very low probability of this type of jump from a zoonotic source, maybe we also need to add the origin of this thing which was Wuhan were they have a lab that does this type of research to the calculation. Now what is the probability of that? I know that might be less of a scientific argument, but it would be strange to ignore it.
It would be interesting to have you both discuss the PCR testing. You touched on that briefly. Thank you again!
First off, thank you both for this friendly debate. It's both excellent and vital.
My initial thoughts are that I side with you Dr Sheftall and your argument. It seems more probable to me that the insert was placed there artificially than for natural mutations and evolution to just occur this way.
The difficulty of testing this new designer pathogen (assuming it was made in a lab) certainly makes sense as a counter argument. But surely with technology now, mathematical modelling and with chaos theory imbedded into the software, they could calculate the probabilites of a new designer pathogen to replicate and reproduce in hosts, without risky live testing taking place. Maybe not perfectly but within a reasonable certainty.
However it is difficult to say with absolute certainty because miracles happen all the time. Especially when dealing with millions and billions of events and small changes any hour of any day, every week, every year. There is still a chance or probability the mutation that occured not only allowed animal to human transmission, but to be a complete change allowing immediate human to human spread also. How could someone calculate that probability in that? It is well above my mathematic capabilities. But however small the chance does exist.
So here I am at an impass. If it waddles like a duck and quacks it's probably a duck. So I still lean towards the lab leak theory as most probable. Damn them and plausible deniability!
Thank you Conway. It was a good debate, wasn't it? I want to answer one of your questions- the one about the chance of the virus mutating to such an extent that it had changed the spike protein enough to dock with human ACXE-2 AND in such a waay that the viral load was enough to make it transmissible from human to human. It's so rare that it has never happened once in the history of man and there are 10 ecp 31 viruses out there trying to do it every day.
I enjoyed it. It relatively quickly solidified my understanding of the issue, from two differing perspectives. I still see your argument as the more likely of the two theories.
I reckon you should try and get an interview with Dr Mike Yeadon at some stage. If you have an hour free watch this.
Reckon he is going crazy? Or is he just overwhelmed by everything going on?
Can you see any mistakes in his thinking?
https://rumble.com/v15yzd4-cv19-virus-and-vax-about-control-not-health-dr.-michael-yeadon.html
I know Mike. I joked with him that If I didn't know I was me and he him, I woulf have thought I was watching myself talk as we have very similar takes on the covid mismanagement and we look alike somewhat. I offered for he and his wife to stay in my beach house as they were transitioning to become US citizens. He kind of disappeared on me and then months later, wrote a very nice thing about me in someone else's substack. I wrote him and asked for an interview but he didn't answer. The ones with Jay might be better as Jay and I disagree on so many things.Mike would be good though. He might not have gotten my message but we exchanged 10 or 15 before.
Thank you for a great discussion, but I'm still with you Dr. Sheftall. One more thing to consider on top of that very very low probability of this type of jump from a zoonotic source, maybe we also need to add the origin of this thing which was Wuhan were they have a lab that does this type of research to the calculation. Now what is the probability of that? I know that might be less of a scientific argument, but it would be strange to ignore it.
It would be interesting to have you both discuss the PCR testing. You touched on that briefly. Thank you again!