Reid, Takes me back to my youth (which was a long time ago...lol). I am sure you will cover it, but the only way to statistically win over time, even counting perfectly, is to play Las Vegas rules. (Of course, you increase your odds of winning by counting a perfect game with any rules, but over time you will lose if you do not just get up and leave while ahead.) Not one other jurisdiction of my acquaintance (and I have played in many cities around the word) treats a soft 17 that way. So not only does what happens in LV stay in LV, but if you want to have the best shot of winning, that is where you need to go to play. Even if you count a game perfectly, in the end you will lose with any other soft 17 rule, irrespective of the other restrictions (if any). Currently, I believe the most forgiving rules are still at the $25 tables at Caesar's Palace in LV. But could have changed since last time I checked.
And, of course (and you did not mention it which surprised me) the odds are ALWAYS against you, even in LV, unless you play with a single deck. If I see a shoe, I go elsewhere. (The $25 tables at Caesar's I noted earlier are also single deck.)
I've done less than 1/10th of it so far. But you can win with multiple decks. Your winnings are watered down for sure but if you count, the odds are still in your favor with the legit systems.
Writing that little piece brought back memories for me too. What do you mean by Las Vegas Rules? I've won everywhere I've played, LV, Reno, Biloxi, Gulfport, etc. with up to 8 decks. I won the most in Reno. Lots of hand-held one and two deck games there. I don't understand when you say "over time you will lose".
Reid, Just dealing with the math which I worked out decades ago. In all cases, even if counting a perfect game, the odds are against you except one. This is, I believe, the ONLY game of chance where the odds actually FAVOR the player.
When I say Las Vegas rules, I am referring to a rule set that I have only found in Las Vegas (especially standing on a soft 17). This includes single deck, dealer stands on soft 17, doubling after any split allowed and up to three hands can be split, doubling down on any two cards allowed, blackjack pays off 3:2, and late surrender is allowed. (You may know other variations, but the Caesar's Palace $25 tables in Las Vegas still use these rules -- there used to be many places but they stopped long ago.)
If you count a perfect game (and they don't hate you and reshuffle after every deal) this has a PLAYER'S EDGE of about 1.5%. This is unheard of in games of chance -- it is why few casinos do this any more. (The best you can do on other games is playing the line on craps but the odds are still 0.6% against you.) The casino's that still play the "original" LV game figure that drunk people trying to count will still lose -- and they are right.
Even with your perfect counting scheme, absent these criteria (e.g., multi decks in a shoe, hit a soft 17, etc.) even counting a perfect game the odds are still in the house's favor, although often at a very shallow level. Which means that counting perfectly you will do far better than most and, provided you walk away, can win substantially. (And I have and it sounds like you have, too.) But if you play long enough, the odds get you EXCEPT for the one case listed above where if you play long enough you will actually win.
A long explanation for what I was trying to say. Maybe my 16 y/o math was wrong, but I expect not. Would be happy to be disabused if so!!
If they use an automatic shuffler, the player loses the advantage from counting. All of the rules you listed are tremendously helpful for the player. You will win with those rules with a legit system such as Hi-Opt 1. You will also win with other combinations of "allowables". If they take away many of them (such as soft doubling, or allow you to double only on hard 9 or 10, or say you can't double after splitting, eventually, the advantage will go back to the casino. Even if you play the basic strategy and vary your wagers wildly (maybe 10 or 15 to 1) you will still win.
You are correct about craps. Playing the line is the best you can do and you still lose a little.
Yes people think they can count and mess up. That is why casino's made more money after counting got popular. People don't have to be drunk to do stupid plays in Blackjack. I've seen some idiotic things done over the years.
Walking away doesn't have anything to do with it. If you don't have an advantage, you will lose over time on average over many players or even yourself if you play long enough. The opposite is true if you have an advantage. You can look up how much the limiting rules decrease your advantage down from 1.5%. eg if you take away soft doubling, you probably lost .5% (I can't remember but it's a lot). Couple that with a few more important ones (like doubling down after splitting, and you're down to nothing.
Haha Joel. There aren't any around me now. I will be going to 2 cities in a couple of months that have casinos within blocks of where I live. I'll be playing some then.
This is great Reid. I think everyone who receives your substack should post this on their social media; twitter, FB, etc.
Thanks. I'm going to do a post a day for a month and see if I get more paid subscribers. Yes. I hope everyone will try to help me out by sharing.
Reid, Takes me back to my youth (which was a long time ago...lol). I am sure you will cover it, but the only way to statistically win over time, even counting perfectly, is to play Las Vegas rules. (Of course, you increase your odds of winning by counting a perfect game with any rules, but over time you will lose if you do not just get up and leave while ahead.) Not one other jurisdiction of my acquaintance (and I have played in many cities around the word) treats a soft 17 that way. So not only does what happens in LV stay in LV, but if you want to have the best shot of winning, that is where you need to go to play. Even if you count a game perfectly, in the end you will lose with any other soft 17 rule, irrespective of the other restrictions (if any). Currently, I believe the most forgiving rules are still at the $25 tables at Caesar's Palace in LV. But could have changed since last time I checked.
And, of course (and you did not mention it which surprised me) the odds are ALWAYS against you, even in LV, unless you play with a single deck. If I see a shoe, I go elsewhere. (The $25 tables at Caesar's I noted earlier are also single deck.)
I've done less than 1/10th of it so far. But you can win with multiple decks. Your winnings are watered down for sure but if you count, the odds are still in your favor with the legit systems.
Writing that little piece brought back memories for me too. What do you mean by Las Vegas Rules? I've won everywhere I've played, LV, Reno, Biloxi, Gulfport, etc. with up to 8 decks. I won the most in Reno. Lots of hand-held one and two deck games there. I don't understand when you say "over time you will lose".
Reid, Just dealing with the math which I worked out decades ago. In all cases, even if counting a perfect game, the odds are against you except one. This is, I believe, the ONLY game of chance where the odds actually FAVOR the player.
When I say Las Vegas rules, I am referring to a rule set that I have only found in Las Vegas (especially standing on a soft 17). This includes single deck, dealer stands on soft 17, doubling after any split allowed and up to three hands can be split, doubling down on any two cards allowed, blackjack pays off 3:2, and late surrender is allowed. (You may know other variations, but the Caesar's Palace $25 tables in Las Vegas still use these rules -- there used to be many places but they stopped long ago.)
If you count a perfect game (and they don't hate you and reshuffle after every deal) this has a PLAYER'S EDGE of about 1.5%. This is unheard of in games of chance -- it is why few casinos do this any more. (The best you can do on other games is playing the line on craps but the odds are still 0.6% against you.) The casino's that still play the "original" LV game figure that drunk people trying to count will still lose -- and they are right.
Even with your perfect counting scheme, absent these criteria (e.g., multi decks in a shoe, hit a soft 17, etc.) even counting a perfect game the odds are still in the house's favor, although often at a very shallow level. Which means that counting perfectly you will do far better than most and, provided you walk away, can win substantially. (And I have and it sounds like you have, too.) But if you play long enough, the odds get you EXCEPT for the one case listed above where if you play long enough you will actually win.
A long explanation for what I was trying to say. Maybe my 16 y/o math was wrong, but I expect not. Would be happy to be disabused if so!!
If they use an automatic shuffler, the player loses the advantage from counting. All of the rules you listed are tremendously helpful for the player. You will win with those rules with a legit system such as Hi-Opt 1. You will also win with other combinations of "allowables". If they take away many of them (such as soft doubling, or allow you to double only on hard 9 or 10, or say you can't double after splitting, eventually, the advantage will go back to the casino. Even if you play the basic strategy and vary your wagers wildly (maybe 10 or 15 to 1) you will still win.
You are correct about craps. Playing the line is the best you can do and you still lose a little.
Yes people think they can count and mess up. That is why casino's made more money after counting got popular. People don't have to be drunk to do stupid plays in Blackjack. I've seen some idiotic things done over the years.
Walking away doesn't have anything to do with it. If you don't have an advantage, you will lose over time on average over many players or even yourself if you play long enough. The opposite is true if you have an advantage. You can look up how much the limiting rules decrease your advantage down from 1.5%. eg if you take away soft doubling, you probably lost .5% (I can't remember but it's a lot). Couple that with a few more important ones (like doubling down after splitting, and you're down to nothing.
Good stuff. Why are you writing on Substack instead of hitting casinos??! I guess I'll read on to find out?!
Haha Joel. There aren't any around me now. I will be going to 2 cities in a couple of months that have casinos within blocks of where I live. I'll be playing some then.