I Hope These People Don't Get Paid for Predictions.

Neil Ferguson, The University of Washington Modelers, and Allan Lichtman

Have you heard the latest? Allan Lichtman who has been very accurate in predicting presidential elections since the 1980s is currently predicting Harris will beat Trump. Remember, he uses his "13 keys" system:

The "keys" are:

- Midterm gains

– No primary contest required to get the nomination

– running as an incumbent

– third party running that gets>10% of the vote

– short-term economy

– long-term economy

– policy change

– social unrest an issue for incumbent party

– scandals during any candidate’s last 4 years

– No foreign/military failure

– Major foreign/military success

– incumbent charisma

– challenger charisma

According to Lichtman, Harris has 6 keys, Trump has 3. I disagree as I will explain below. Note 1 : Since there are 13 keys, you only need 7 to win; Lichtman's prediction contest, that is. Note 2: There may be only 12 keys this year because there is no "incumbency". Biden was the incumbent but he was forced out of the race by Obama, who threatened, in a phone call to Biden on July 25, to persuade Harris to pursue a removal from office on him (Biden) pursuant to Amendment 25. Pelosi, Schumer and possibly other major donors put serious pressure on him as well through the politicians in their pockets. In Biden's corner were his wife, Jill, his son, Hunter, and the law. That’s right. The ball was in Joe's court and he would have been the nominee if he hadn't been forced out in the "palace coup". Laws aplenty were broken to get Harris in there and just hand over Joe's war chest (i.e., campaign donations, a.k.a. donor money).

The planning and effort some practical jokers might engage in to stuff boxes in a junior high Homecoming race for King and Queen far outweighs what the operators did to force Biden out. They just wrote a resignation letter for Biden and signed it for him. (Sorry, the signature at the bottom of the letter does not even remotely resemble Biden's automated signature or hand handwritten ones anyone can find). They also forgot to put it on letter head and forgot to affix the Presidential seal). That letter should NOT have been accepted by the Election Commissioner.

Biden is capable of omitting all of these critical pieces but not his staff who ordinarily prepare these types of documents and place them in front of him on his desk for signature. Who prepared that ridiculous excuse for an official resignation letter and who forged his signature? **A word of caution: There is such a thing as "bait, switch, discredit, claim victory". With the forged excuse for a resignation letter, it would work something like this:

1. Submit a proper Letter of Resignation to the Election Commissioner who accepts it (but there is much more to this(see below)).

2. Float the purposefully- inauthentic letter out to the public. [They posted Joe's letter on everyone's paragon of (important business) authenticity, Twitter (X).]

3. Label as "conspiracy theorists" those who claim the resignation was illegitimate by pointing out that Biden was forced out of the race (using threats such as those used by Obama, that would scare someone at Biden's level of cognitive function into doing something he did not want to do ) and DISCREDIT the "conspiracy theorists" when the official letter is produced, having been signed by Biden on proper letterhead with the Official Seal of the President affixed and accepted by the Election Commissioner. Note: A slight variation on this was done during the Obama birth certificate controversy. Lots of fake information damning to Obama's case was made available to be easily discovered by those who believed Obama to be illegitimate. When they claimed he was illegitimate and that this information proved it, they were shot down easily by the planters of such information because they knew how to show it was fake. This served two purposes. First, it took those "Obama wasn't born in the USA" proponents out of the picture and second, it fatigued the public. Eventually they grew tired of what seemed like an endless string of false alarms.

4. Claim Victory on the issue of the legitimacy of the resignation by conflating the small battle won over the legitimacy of the resignation letter.

But as I alluded to above, there are many more requirements for officially removing ones self from even an election for a State House seat, let alone President of the United States. I'm no expert but there must be provisions for no longer being able to accept campaign donations, for no longer being able to deduct certain campaign expenses, what you can now do and not do with remaining campaign funds, etc.. I don't think you can just give them to another candidate as was done in the case of Kamala Harris. Are there not limits on how much money one person can donate to one candidate in a given race.? Kamala got around $91 million from Biden's accounts, I heard and many people said, "He's going to have to pick Kamala because she is the only person who can have his campaign donations".

Really? Is that the law?

Why can he do that? Is it Biden's choice? Biden is President, yes, but he is ONE PERSON. Does one person get to decide who the nominee is? If so, it’s a damn strange law. It can't be because she's his vice-President, can it? That doesn’t make sense either. Just one person deciding who gets the money and nomination seems prone to corruption in that it would give one person an enormous advantage over other candidates who got more votes and delegates that that person. The President is just one person when it comes to voting. That’s why candidates always make a showing of going to the polls and casting their one vote just like everybody else.

Anyway, there are all kinds of accounting and legal requirements and document submissions related to accounting and legal that are required in order to withdraw from a race with laws stated very clearly as to what must be done with leftover funds and many, many requirements and document submissions relating to other facets of withdrawal. Hell, they pinned felony charges on Trump for violating some campaign finance thing charging the pay-off to Stormy Daniels as a legal expense (I think) or did it have to do with a business records charge only and not violate campaign finance law. (I can’t remember and don’t care too much). But he got 39 felonies because he had to sign of 39 pages of some disclosure form. That’s why the Left claims, “he was convicted of 39 felonies”! It was all the same case. (that’s MSNBC accounting for you).

And in Biden’s case, ALL of the withdrawal documents require his signature, maybe even all the pages of every document.

Let's see 'em.

I don't think Kamala is legally able to solicit or accept donations until she is the official Democratic candidate for President. Yet I get requests every day from her, for donations. And isn't it too late for her to get on the ballot in some States?

And, and, and... I'll spare you.

This thing has more holes in it that a BB gun target at ten feet.

To finish up on Lichtman's 13 keys. He gave Trump the following 3 keys: 1) Lack of incumbency (ok so he gives this one to Trump because there is no incumbent and it was an advantage the Dems can no longer capitalize on)., 2) Midterm gains., and 3) (Lack of a) charismatic incumbent. Certainly the case- no one would describe Biden as charismatic in any part of his 3 1/2 years and certainly not now. He has gotten to the point where he needs around the clock nursing care. Even two years ago, he couldn't speak properly. The MSM blamed it on a stuttering problem he had as a boy and young man that he no longer had by the 1970s, which was utter nonsense.

Lichtman gave Kamala the following six keys: 1) Got the nomination without having to go through a Primary contest. Wow! You can say that again! Her performance at the polls was embarrassing. She got only 1 or 2% of the vote in her home state of California and dropped out. She got the nomination by securing the great state of “Obama’s Kitchen Table” and secured the only eleven delegates that matter: 2 Clintons, 2 Obamas, a Schumer, a Pelosi, a Zuckerberg, a Pichai, a Page, a Brin, and a Thiel. 2) Short-term economy. This should have gone to Trump. The short term economy under Biden and the Dems of which Harris is an even further far left member than Biden is in or on the verge of a recession. Inflation is hurting everyone. This isn’t because of anything Harris did except for supporting the war in Ukraine and idiotic projects to fight man-caused climate change, etc. But to think Harris, who was the most far left Senator by voting record, and votes for spending money on projects which depend on idiotic claims like “Climate Change is caused by man’s actions in increasing atmospheric CO2” and “the Green New Deal is an economically-viable answer to our energy problems” (and many other idiotic boondoggles) should get the nod over Trump, who had the economy booming until the Covid Fraud was released on the world, is just delusional. 3) Long-term Economy. same here . Harris should not get the nod over Trump. 4) Major Policy Change: I’m not sure what major policy change was written into law during the Biden 3.5 years that would qualify for this nod but the Biden years were FULL of stupid policies like the requirement that business of over 100 employees must require all of those employees get the vaccine. Policies are policies but this one was murder and we knew it well before Biden required it. Lichtman gave it to Harris for some reason. Maybe it was the policy that gives illegal aliens free health care, food, lodging in NYC’s finer Hotels, and post-secondary education since Harris was in charge of reducing illegal immigration. It SKYROCKETED under her supervision. 5) No Scandals on Biden’s/Dem’s watch: Wait a second. This guy is not designating it a scandal that the assassination attempt of President Trump was an inside job that might even implicate Harris and Jill Biden for scheduling speeches in Pittsburgh about 60 miles from Trump’s rally in Butler and at the same time, thus securing the secret service protection Trump would have had access to, to make his site more secure. No accusation here, we just need to know when they scheduled these speeches. If it was after Trump announced his dates for Butler, they have some explaining to do. For another major scandal that the experts say would have put 2016 out of reach for Biden even with the cheating, how about Hunter’s laptop and the 51 Spies that Lied? What about Alvin Bragg where every lawyer says those charges on Trump would not ordinarily be brought and it was politically-motivated? Some of the other charges have been dropped such as the Top Secret documents charges (I think). The lady who claimed Trump sexually-assaulted her in a Bergdorf-Goodman changing room but couldn’t remember the date was probably making it up. Answer me this: Who would try to rape someone in a busy department store changing room where women are buzzing in and out of there all day, when the victim could scream, “HELP!” and 4 people would run in there immediately and catch the perpetrator with his pants down literally and figuratively. Oh yeah, I’ll try that! Thirty seconds of action vs 10 years in prison and the end of my career and name forever. Even horny old DT wouldn’t do that. 6) Challenger charisma. Lichtman gave this to Harris over Trump. They both have some charisma. I personally think Trump has “a lot” and Harris has only “some” but I could be wrong.

OK there are four left with “leaning toward”, according to Lichtman as follows: 1) He has “no third party get’s more than 10% of the vote” leaning toward Harris. He must not think much of RFK, Jr.’s campaign. I could be wrong but I think there’s better than a 50 percent chance Kennedy breaks 10%, in which case this key would go to Trump. 2) Lichtman must think there’s little social unrest because he has this key leaning toward Harris. What about the out of control crime in all major cities with blue Mayors, especially in California where they passed the “less than $950 in stolen merchandise makes it a misdemeanor”-law. That’s a Democrat-supported law. So is “Defund the Police” which Harris supports. So is “lower the bail” which Harris did not only support but for which she was a major fundraiser. I remember when she was so proud to get that one guy out of a Minnesota jail by raising enough money to cover his lowered bail and he went out and killed someone else while awaiting trial on the first charge. Let’s see… social unrest. What about the pro-Palestine group occupying universities all over the country and now Washington, DC or wherever they are taking down US flags and raising there own. I guess we’ll have to see what increases and decreases up to the election. 3) and 4) Military successes and failures. Lichtman is leaning toward Trump on both of these- well, stop the world- because the current Admin had no successes while failing miserably in Ukraine, not knowing what to do in Gaza/Israel so they end up supporting both sides, and is bombing Yemen- perhaps justified- as we speak. Biden, of course, just last week said, “We are not involved in any wars now or at any time during my administration.” Oh yeah, Afghanistan. the withdrawal under Biden’s supervision was an embarrassment as we all witnessed.

Lichtman predicted Trump would beat Hillary in 2016 but that Biden would beat Trump in 2020 where he was incorrect.