The Walkback Continues, Part 1

The questions from the last two nights were very popular but please ask questions in the comments below. I got 12 private messages this morning with answers. No one got both true/false questions correct. If you ask in the comments, your very good ideas will benefit everyone. Before I give you tonight’s problem, I wanted to share what many of you know- that Boris Johnson has decided to drop all restrictions for England. No mask mandates, no vaccine mandates, no vaccine passports, no lockdowns, no nothing. Continuing the idiotic narrative has become nonsensical, even for Johnson. The people just werent going to let the government steal their money and ruin their lives and their childrens’ lives any more over something where the policies were far worse than the disease.

I’m not comparing money to lives as some confused people accused me of in March of 2020 when I started making posts about the idiocy of the policies being enacted. I was then and am still comparing lives to lives. The virus has killed about 5 million people and the lockdowns are expected to kill at least 200 million people due to the econimic fallout and moratoriums on all but emergency surgeries, etc (all listed in my videos at Dr. Reid Sheftall Truth in Science on Yahoo.com). The 200 million is turning out to be too low. The all cause mortality rose an enormous number last year. It varied by country but was astonishing in almost all.

Here’s a problem that I put in my videos and my live presentations this fall so if you have seen it solved, please disqualify yourselves. The question is:

You go to your doctor’s office to get a PCR test and are told your result is positive given the actual, real-ife parameters below. What is the likelihood that the result the doctor gave you is incorrect?

(these are real numbers from England in the summer of 2020)

Prevalence of the disease: 1%

False positive rate: 8%

False negative rate 25%

I’ll show the answer tomorrow evening. It might surprise you to learn that this question was asked of 1000 doctors in a survey to see if even doctors, who are supposed to understand this stuff, actually understood it. Only four doctors got the correct answer. (doctors are not the most mathematical people in the world. There are exceptions, of course,) Answer tomorrow night…